MISSBrier 0.518

Found one article from RBC-Ukraine dated March 12, 2026 about Chinese aircraft near Taiwan, but this predates the specified March 25-April 7 window. Two other sources (ISW April 3, AEI March 27) mention China & Taiwan updates but content not accessible to verify specific named exercises or large-scale patrols. No evidence found of named PLA military exercises or large-scale naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait during the specified March 25-April 7 timeframe.

Resolved Apr 8, 2026

Geopolitical

The PLA will conduct at least one named military exercise or large-scale naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters between March 25 and April 7, 2026, coinciding with the intensity-5 Erev Pesach/Taiwan Strait Tension Window convergence on March 31

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Game theory Taiwan Strait Crisis analysis showing China most likely chooses 'Gray zone escalation' (70% confidence), combined with the intensity-5/5 Erev Pesach signal on March 31 explicitly tagged as 'Taiwan Strait Tension Window' in sectors defense and shipping, and Grey Zone Warfare framework indicating military exercises as standard salami-slicing tactic

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The PLA will conduct at least one named military exercise or large-scale naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters between March 25 and April 7, 2026, coinciding with the intensity-5 Erev Pesach/Taiwan Strait Tension Window convergence on March 31

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