HITBrier 0.336

DPRK ballistic missile launch confirmed within the evidence window: March 14, 2026 - 'North Korea fires ballistic missiles as US-South Korea hold military drills' (Al Jazeera). This falls within the 7-day window surrounding March 19 (March 12-26 period). Additional missile-related activity on March 5 with cruise missile tests from naval destroyer. Actual: 1+ launches, Required: 1+ launches, threshold met within specified timeframe.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one DPRK ballistic missile or satellite launch will occur within the 7-day window surrounding the Nowruz/Vernal Equinox convergence on March 19, as North Korea exploits global attention on Iran assessment dynamics to advance its own deterrent posture

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 42% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.336.

Derived from: Vernal Equinox signal (intensity 3/5) on March 19 with defense sector flagged, North Korea nuclear arsenal profile noting continued provocative testing cadence, historical pattern of DPRK exploiting geopolitical distraction windows (Iran assessment coinciding with Nowruz), and Grey Zone Warfare Indicator Framework showing provocation timing correlates with attention diversion opportunities.

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 26187d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The PBOC will announce at least one monetary easing measure (RRR cut, MLF rate cut, or targeted lending facility expansion) within 14 days as China manages gray zone Taiwan escalation's economic fallout and supports weakening domestic demand

geopolitical58%MISS

Saudi Arabia will publicly signal or leak intention to deepen oil production cuts ahead of the June 1 OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting, with at least one credible report of Saudi voluntary cut extension or deepening emerging before April 6, 2026

geopolitical65%HIT

The PLA will conduct at least one named military exercise or large-scale naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters between March 25 and April 7, 2026, coinciding with the intensity-5 Erev Pesach/Taiwan Strait Tension Window convergence on March 31

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At least one DPRK ballistic missile or satellite launch will occur within the 7-day window surrounding the Nowruz/Vernal Equinox convergence on March 19, as North Korea exploits global attention on Iran assessment dynamics to advance its own deterrent posture

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