China will invade Taiwan by end of 2026

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium is 'China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence' (100% probability weight, fragile stability) not full invasion; narrow 25% bargaining range raises miscalculation risk but does not point to overt invasion. Slightly below crowd's 4% given gray-zone dominant strategy.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 76d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Saudi Arabia will announce a coordinated OPEC+ production cut reversing the current output-increase policy within 30 days

geopolitical18%MISS

OPEC+ will announce a further production increase at its next ministerial-level meeting within 30 days, continuing the rollback of prior voluntary cuts.

geopolitical28%MISS

Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian nuclear-related infrastructure within 30 days.

geopolitical51%MISS

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China will invade Taiwan by end of 2026

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