China's PLA will conduct a multi-day large-scale naval exercise or blockade-simulation drill encircling Taiwan within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 58% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability, 53% escalation probability, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical) and the Autumnal Equinox/UNGA convergence window flagged in active signals.

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 8

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China's PLA will conduct a multi-day large-scale naval exercise or blockade-simulation drill encircling Taiwan within 30 days.

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