The DOJ or FTC will file a new formal antitrust breakup lawsuit or structural remedy proposal against a major US technology company within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 45% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Grounded in the Nash/Bayesian 'Big Tech Antitrust Showdown' scenario (mixed equilibrium, US pursues breakup, 70% confidence). Confidence is set low per base-rate anchor from a recently denied identical-shape prediction (0% hit) and the policy_action/geopolitical reference class hit rate of 20%.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel will maintain a closed national airspace status through September 30, 2026, consistent with continued wartime conditions.

geopolitical85%

The United States Congress will advance or pass comprehensive crypto regulatory legislation within 30 days.

geopolitical49%

Israel will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iran-linked target outside Lebanon/Gaza (e.g., Syria, Yemen, or Iranian territory/proxy infrastructure) within 14 days.

geopolitical59%

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North Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or confirmed military provocation between September 10-19, 2026, coinciding with the UN General Assembly and Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window

geopolitical74%

The DOJ or FTC will file a new formal antitrust breakup lawsuit or structural remedy proposal against a major US technology company within 30 days.

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