North Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or confirmed military provocation between September 10-19, 2026, coinciding with the UN General Assembly and Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 74% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-22.

DPRK Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (ICBM launch/sanctions escalation, mixed, 70% confidence) plus active signal convergence (Erev Rosh Hashana + UNGA, intensity 5/5) and recent confirmed Aug 12 missile test establishing pattern continuation.

Probability: 74%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test or other maritime-based weapons demonstration within 30 days.

geopolitical59%

A head of state, foreign minister, or senior UN official will publicly announce a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire framework or negotiation breakthrough during the UN General Assembly session window (September 10-30, 2026).

geopolitical21%

Israel will maintain a closed national airspace status through September 30, 2026, consistent with continued wartime conditions.

geopolitical85%

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North Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or confirmed military provocation between September 10-19, 2026, coinciding with the UN General Assembly and Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window

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