Grounded in North Korea actor intelligence update (2026-05-16): DPRK 'expanding nuclear doctrine to include maritime capabilities' amid escalating military posture, and the Nash equilibrium for the North Korea Provocation Cycle (ICBM launch/sanctions escalation, mixed, 70% confidence). This is a materially different catalyst (maritime/SLBM-specific) than the already-resolved land-based missile test pattern.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$30

Regimewartime

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