MISSBrier 0.722

The Jerusalem Post, September 30, 2026, 'Israel: Flydubai pilot tried to hijack Tel Aviv flight, all passengers safe', and Times of Israel, September 30, 'Israel maintains unique air security arrangements, but flydubai incident shows vulnerabilities', report an operating passenger flight to Tel Aviv on September 30, directly contradicting continuous closure of national airspace through that day. Actual: an arriving passenger flight on September 30; required: continuous closed national airspace through September 30; continuous closure NOT met. These sources are other-tier and do not establish whether a separate partial airspace restriction was in force.

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Geopolitical

Israel will maintain a closed national airspace status through September 30, 2026, consistent with continued wartime conditions.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 85% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.722.

Mirrors Polymarket market 3701690 (YES 96%). Wartime regime with 80% overall escalation risk score and confirmed active Hezbollah/Hamas strike operations support continued airspace restrictions, though full certainty is discounted given calibration feedback on high-confidence geopolitical claims.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 22 days
Deadline: Sep 3016d ago
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The DOJ or FTC will file a new formal antitrust breakup lawsuit or structural remedy proposal against a major US technology company within 30 days.

geopolitical45%EXPIRED

The United States Congress will advance or pass comprehensive crypto regulatory legislation within 30 days.

geopolitical49%MISS

Israel will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iran-linked target outside Lebanon/Gaza (e.g., Syria, Yemen, or Iranian territory/proxy infrastructure) within 14 days.

geopolitical59%EXPIRED

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Israel will maintain a closed national airspace status through September 30, 2026, consistent with continued wartime conditions.

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