HITBrier 0.902

Found multiple evidence within evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). March 20, 2026 article reports 'KF-21 Export Breakthrough: South Korea Sells 16 Fighter Jets to Indonesia' and April 7, 2026 article confirms 'South Korea Agrees to Transfer KF-21 Prototype to Indonesia'. Additionally, April 3, 2026 article reports 'Indonesia and Australia step up defence cooperation'. Multiple defense agreements/procurements announced. Actual: at least 2 agreements, Required: at least 1, 2 ≥ 1 therefore threshold met

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Geopolitical

Indonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement contract within 30 days as Strait of Malacca strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 5% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.902.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian equilibrium showing China gray zone escalation at 53% probability. Indonesia controls critical Malacca chokepoint. Base rate for defense cooperation announcements is 25% per month, elevated by regional tensions. Compound probability accounts for gray zone scenario triggering Indonesian defensive positioning.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Indonesia will announce at least one new bilateral defense or maritime security agreement within 30 days as Malacca Strait strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation and regional coalition building

geopolitical5%HIT

Malaysia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint vulnerability drives regional security partnerships

geopolitical5%MISS

India will announce at least one new defense procurement or strategic partnership agreement with a Western nation within 30 days as Taiwan gray-zone escalation and supply chain diversification away from China create strategic alignment opportunities

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Indonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement contract within 30 days as Strait of Malacca strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation

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