Indonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement contract within 30 days as Strait of Malacca strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 5% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.902.
Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian equilibrium showing China gray zone escalation at 53% probability. Indonesia controls critical Malacca chokepoint. Base rate for defense cooperation announcements is 25% per month, elevated by regional tensions. Compound probability accounts for gray zone scenario triggering Indonesian defensive positioning.
- Probability
- 5%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Apr 10172d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.