HITBrier 0.902

Found evidence of Indonesia defense cooperation expansion. Article from March 13, 2026: 'Indonesia and Australia to Expand Security Cooperation to Include Japan, Papua New Guinea' - This represents a new multilateral defense arrangement involving Indonesia during the prediction window. Actual: 1 agreement announced, Required: ≥1, 1 ≥ 1 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Geopolitical

Indonesia will announce at least one new bilateral defense or maritime security agreement within 30 days as Malacca Strait strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation and regional coalition building

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 5% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.902.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (Nash equilibrium at 70% confidence) increases focus on alternative shipping routes through Malacca. Indonesia controls critical chokepoint and historically announces defense partnerships during regional tension periods. Base rate for Indonesian defense announcements ~40% per month during tension periods.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Indonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement contract within 30 days as Strait of Malacca strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation

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Indonesia will announce at least one new bilateral defense or maritime security agreement within 30 days as Malacca Strait strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation and regional coalition building

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