MISSBrier 0.663

[basis: absence] Searched multiple phrasings ('PLA military exercise Taiwan ADIZ incursion Sep 2026', 'Taiwan Defense Ministry PLA aircraft sorties reported September 2026', 'PLA Taiwan drills incursion warplanes', 'Taiwan spots PLA aircraft ships ADIZ incursion large-scale exercise') within the 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21 window. Only tangential hit was an ISW 'China & Taiwan Update, September 11, 2026' (other tier) with no specific confirmation of a large-scale exercise or ADIZ incursion event. No official or wire-tier report of a new large-scale PLA exercise or ADIZ incursion was found in the window.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Geopolitical

China's PLA will conduct at least one additional publicly reported large-scale military exercise or ADIZ incursion near Taiwan within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 81% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.663.

Consistent with the Bayesian Taiwan Strait dominant strategy 'China: Gray zone escalation' and the historically confirmed high-frequency pattern of PLA incursions (multiple prior confirmations). Binary_event/geopolitical reference class shows 55% hit rate with an underconfidence gap (-18pp), supporting a higher stated confidence than average.

Probability: 81%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China's PLA will conduct at least one additional publicly reported large-scale military exercise or ADIZ incursion near Taiwan within 14 days.

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