The Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 meeting.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 6% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Mirrors Polymarket question 2252243 (YES 0%). Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle scenario shows zero stable equilibria and dominant 'hawkish hold + guidance' outcome (bearish, 55% confidence); prior confirmed prediction shows Fed delivered a hawkish hold with three hike dissents in July, supporting continuation of hold bias over cut.

Probability: 6%
Timeframe: 9 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 7

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Hezbollah will conduct at least one additional confirmed rocket, drone, or cross-border attack against Israel within 14 days.

geopolitical76%MISS

China will announce a new export restriction targeting rare earth minerals or critical technology components aimed at US firms within 14 days.

geopolitical27%MISS

Israel will conduct at least one confirmed airstrike targeting Hezbollah or Iranian-linked military infrastructure in Lebanon within 14 days.

geopolitical77%HIT

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The Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 meeting.

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