China will maintain gray-zone coercive military activity against Taiwan without escalating to a full blockade through October 20, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-20.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis: most likely equilibrium 'China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence' at p=100% probability within the modeled equilibrium set, fragile stability (30%), narrow 25% bargaining range — status-quo gray-zone activity is the base case absent a fracture event.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 20in 21d
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Richard Grenell will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

geopolitical5%

Yabloko will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027.

geopolitical9%

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The Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

China will maintain gray-zone coercive military activity against Taiwan without escalating to a full blockade through October 20, 2026.

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