The Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-20.

Bayesian/Nash Fed Rate Cycle Pivot scenario shows most likely equilibrium 'fed chooses Hawkish hold + guidance; markets chooses Volatility hedging' (bearish, 55% confidence) with zero stable Bayesian equilibria, indicating the Fed-markets bargaining relationship remains unresolved and biased toward hawkish surprise.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 20in 21d
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027.

geopolitical9%

Russia and Ukraine will publicly confirm progress toward a negotiated ceasefire framework (agreed talks, terms, or partial truce) within 30 days

geopolitical85%

US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident

geopolitical85%

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Yabloko will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

The Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.

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