Russia and Ukraine will publicly confirm progress toward a negotiated ceasefire framework (agreed talks, terms, or partial truce) within 30 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-20.
Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame model shows sufficient bargaining range (50%), 2 stable equilibria, and a dominant bullish outcome (russia: negotiate from strength / us: push negotiated settlement, p=91%, confidence 78%), discounted for real-world diplomatic friction.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 20in 21d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.