Russia and Ukraine will publicly confirm progress toward a negotiated ceasefire framework (agreed talks, terms, or partial truce) within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-20.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame model shows sufficient bargaining range (50%), 2 stable equilibria, and a dominant bullish outcome (russia: negotiate from strength / us: push negotiated settlement, p=91%, confidence 78%), discounted for real-world diplomatic friction.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 20in 21d
Made: Sep 20

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

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The Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.

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The US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident.

geopolitical85%

Russia and Ukraine will publicly confirm progress toward a negotiated ceasefire framework (agreed talks, terms, or partial truce) within 30 days

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