US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-25.

Crowd prices this at 83% YES, but the Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis analysis shows a 67% escalation probability and the Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario shows a zero-width Fearon bargaining range, suggesting the crowd is underpricing near-term kinetic risk even over this short window.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 5 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident

geopolitical85%

Russia and Ukraine will publicly confirm progress toward a negotiated ceasefire framework (agreed talks, terms, or partial truce) within 30 days

geopolitical85%

The US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident.

geopolitical85%

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

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