The US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Crowd prices this at 76% YES. Bayesian Hormuz analysis shows a sufficient (50%) bargaining range but a 67% escalation probability and an actively escalating IRGC (naval leadership losses, explicit threats against US infrastructure per actor intelligence). I weight slightly below the crowd given the Iran-nuclear Fearon collapse (0% range) sitting adjacent to the ceasefire question.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 10 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

geopolitical85%

US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident

geopolitical85%

Russia and Ukraine will publicly confirm progress toward a negotiated ceasefire framework (agreed talks, terms, or partial truce) within 30 days

geopolitical85%

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OPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial-level decision within 30 days.

geopolitical51%

The US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident.

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