The US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.722.

Crowd prices this at 76% YES. Bayesian Hormuz analysis shows a sufficient (50%) bargaining range but a 67% escalation probability and an actively escalating IRGC (naval leadership losses, explicit threats against US infrastructure per actor intelligence). I weight slightly below the crowd given the Iran-nuclear Fearon collapse (0% range) sitting adjacent to the ceasefire question.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

10 days

Deadline

Sep 3016d ago

Made

Sep 20

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .