Crowd prices 77% YES; Bayesian Hormuz Crisis escalation probability of 67% and Iran-nuclear Fearon failure compound over a longer window, justifying a lower probability estimate than the crowd for continued ceasefire durability.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 10 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident.

geopolitical85%