The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 9% probability. Pending, resolves by 2027-01-01.

Mirrors Polymarket question (1163699, YES 7%). Crypto Regulatory Clarity Bayesian equilibrium shows 'US: Comprehensive legislation' as bullish/most-likely outcome (2 equilibria, confidence 70%), warranting a slightly higher probability than the crowd's 7% given the legislative momentum implied by the game-theory model.

Probability: 9%
Timeframe: 103 days
Deadline: Jan 1in 94d
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

Yabloko will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

Russia and Ukraine will publicly confirm progress toward a negotiated ceasefire framework (agreed talks, terms, or partial truce) within 30 days

geopolitical85%

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The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027.

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