Richard Grenell will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Mirrors Polymarket question [1105754] priced at 0% YES; no signal in the intelligence picture (actor intelligence, thesis, or game theory) supports a Venezuelan leadership transition, so the near-zero crowd price is corroborated.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 100 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 93d
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will maintain gray-zone coercive military activity against Taiwan without escalating to a full blockade through October 20, 2026.

geopolitical85%

Yabloko will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027.

geopolitical9%

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Richard Grenell will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

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