China will conduct a new confirmed maritime confrontation (water cannon use, blocking, or collision) with Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.

Derived from: China PLA actor intelligence update noting sustained pressure operations against Philippines at Huangyan Island, and the South China Sea Ruling Anniversary convergence signal flagged in the active signals calendar.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 29today
Made: Sep 15

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China will conduct a new confirmed maritime confrontation (water cannon use, blocking, or collision) with Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal within 14 days

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