Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed strike or attack against an energy facility or infrastructure target in a Gulf state allied with the US (Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Bahrain) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.

Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout shows a zero-percent Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict conditions) and Hormuz escalation probability of 67%, indicating elevated risk of proxy attacks beyond shipping harassment extending to regional energy infrastructure.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 29today
Made: Sep 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia will announce a unilateral partial ceasefire or truce proposal regarding the Ukraine conflict within 30 days

geopolitical34%

China will conduct a new confirmed maritime confrontation (water cannon use, blocking, or collision) with Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal within 14 days

geopolitical85%

The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law in 2026

geopolitical36%

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OPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial meeting within 30 days

geopolitical51%

Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed strike or attack against an energy facility or infrastructure target in a Gulf state allied with the US (Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Bahrain) within 14 days.

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