Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed strike or attack against an energy facility or infrastructure target in a Gulf state allied with the US (Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Bahrain) within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.
Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout shows a zero-percent Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict conditions) and Hormuz escalation probability of 67%, indicating elevated risk of proxy attacks beyond shipping harassment extending to regional energy infrastructure.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 29today
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.