MISSBrier 0.074

Web search for India defense procurement contract announcements worth over $2 billion during March 11-25, 2026 returned no results. No evidence found of any defense contract announcements meeting the $2 billion threshold during the prediction window. Required: at least 1 contract. Actual: 0 contracts found. 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Geopolitical

India will announce at least one new defense procurement contract worth over $2 billion within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation drives Indo-Pacific alliance military modernization

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 27% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.074.

Derived from: Taiwan gray zone escalation Nash equilibrium (70% confidence) creates alliance coordination pressure. India benefits from supply chain redirection (confirmed by SENSEX prediction early confirmation). Base rate for defense cooperation announcements is 25% per month, elevated by current regional tension convergences approaching Erev Pesach intensity-5 window.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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India will announce at least one new defense procurement contract worth over $2 billion within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation drives Indo-Pacific alliance military modernization

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