MISSBrier 0.151

Searched GDELT for Argentina currency policy and capital control announcements from March 11 to April 10, 2026. Found only 2 articles about BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust results on March 26, with no mention of Argentine government currency policy changes or capital control modifications. No evidence of any Argentine policy announcements within the prediction window.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Geopolitical

Argentina will announce at least one currency policy change or capital control modification within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios drive emerging market defensive positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.151.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis showing Iran Nuclear and US-China Trade scenarios both have Fearon bargaining failures, creating systemic EM stress. Historical base rate for Argentina policy changes under external pressure ~20% per month, elevated by current regime instability

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Argentina will announce at least one currency policy change or capital control modification within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios drive emerging market defensive positioning

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