HITBrier 0.436

Multiple news sources confirm significant KSE-100 declines during March-April 2026: 'KSE-100 posts steepest monthly drop since March 2020' (April 7), 'PSX among worst global performers as KSE-100 drops 15pc in 1Q' (April 1), 'Geopolitical shock wipes over 19,000 points off KSE-100 in March' (April 1). The 15% quarterly decline mentioned exceeds the required 8% threshold. Actual decline: >15%, Required: >8%, 15% > 8% therefore threshold MET.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Geopolitical

SHORT correctKSE

Pakistan's KSE 100 stock index will decline more than 8% from current levels within 30 days as the Kashmir escalation game theory scenario (73% escalation probability, 46% bargaining range) creates regional equity market stress

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 34% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.436.

Derived from: Bayesian Kashmir escalation scenario showing 73% escalation probability with US surgical strikes/China mediation equilibrium. Pakistani markets extremely sensitive to regional tensions. Compound probability: P(escalation triggers) * P(market decline|triggers) = 0.73 * 0.90 = 0.66, adjusted for Pakistan-specific volatility

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$100

Regime

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.