MISSBrier 0.003

GDELT was unavailable, and web search for Indonesia maritime security and Malacca Strait announcements from March 11 to April 10, 2026 returned 0 results within the evidence window (13 results were excluded for being outside this window). No evidence of Indonesian maritime security announcements or new naval patrol measures in the Malacca Strait during the prediction period.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Geopolitical

Indonesia will announce new maritime security measures or naval patrols in the Malacca Strait within 30 days as Taiwan gray-zone escalation (70% confidence Nash equilibrium) creates chokepoint security concerns

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: Game theory Taiwan Strait scenario shows Gray zone escalation/Economic deterrence at 70% confidence. Malacca Strait chokepoint profile in Knowledge Bank shows 16 million bpd oil transit. Compound probability: P(Taiwan escalation) * P(Indonesian response|escalation) = 0.70 * 0.55 = 0.38

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Indonesia will announce new maritime security measures or naval patrols in the Malacca Strait within 30 days as Taiwan gray-zone escalation (70% confidence Nash equilibrium) creates chokepoint security concerns

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