Indonesia will announce new maritime security measures or naval patrols in the Malacca Strait within 30 days as Taiwan gray-zone escalation (70% confidence Nash equilibrium) creates chokepoint security concerns
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.003.
Derived from: Game theory Taiwan Strait scenario shows Gray zone escalation/Economic deterrence at 70% confidence. Malacca Strait chokepoint profile in Knowledge Bank shows 16 million bpd oil transit. Compound probability: P(Taiwan escalation) * P(Indonesian response|escalation) = 0.70 * 0.55 = 0.38
- Probability
- 5%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Apr 10172d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.