China will announce or implement at least one new trade, customs, or export restriction targeting Taiwan-linked semiconductor supply chains within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 27% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis: narrow 25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, dominant calculating actor types on both sides, critical fracture risk (30% coalition stability), equilibrium of China gray-zone escalation vs US economic deterrence.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel will conduct at least one confirmed military strike against Hezbollah or Hamas-linked targets within the 7-day window surrounding the September 19 Yom Kippur/Autumnal Equinox anniversary convergence

geopolitical73%

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (beyond the confirmed September hike) at its next monthly output decision within 30 days

geopolitical22%

The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no rate change) at its September 2026 meeting, matching the Polymarket 'no change' question resolving 2026-09-16

geopolitical47%EXPIRED

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China will announce or implement at least one new trade, customs, or export restriction targeting Taiwan-linked semiconductor supply chains within 30 days.

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