The United States will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 26% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-22.

Derived from Nash equilibrium for Russia-Ukraine War Endgame: 'Russia chooses Negotiate from strength; US chooses Increase military aid' (bullish, 70% confidence). Confidence tempered because the Bayesian equilibrium instead favors a negotiated settlement track (50% bargaining range, 91% probability of 'push negotiated settlement', 78% confidence), creating competing signals.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no rate change) at its September 2026 meeting, matching the Polymarket 'no change' question resolving 2026-09-16

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OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (beyond the confirmed September hike) at its next monthly output decision within 30 days

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Israel will conduct at least one confirmed military strike against Hezbollah or Hamas-linked targets within the 7-day window surrounding the September 19 Yom Kippur/Autumnal Equinox anniversary convergence

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The United States will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine within 14 days

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