The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no rate change) at its September 2026 meeting, matching the Polymarket 'no change' question resolving 2026-09-16

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 47% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle equilibrium shows 'Hawkish hold + guidance' as most likely outcome (bearish, 55% confidence); prior confirmed hawkish hold in July with 3 dissents establishes a repeatable pattern. Crowd currently prices 'no change' at only 48%, which I judge underpriced given the established hold pattern.

Probability: 47%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (beyond the confirmed September hike) at its next monthly output decision within 30 days

geopolitical22%

Israel will conduct at least one confirmed military strike against Hezbollah or Hamas-linked targets within the 7-day window surrounding the September 19 Yom Kippur/Autumnal Equinox anniversary convergence

geopolitical73%

The United States will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine within 14 days

geopolitical26%

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The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no rate change) at its September 2026 meeting, matching the Polymarket 'no change' question resolving 2026-09-16

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