China will impose new formal trade, customs, or export restrictions targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 49% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-25.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: China gray-zone escalation, US economic deterrence (p=100% of the single equilibrium, fragile 30% coalition stability, narrow 25% bargaining range). Economic coercion is the modeled escalation channel, not kinetic action.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 25in 26d
Made: Sep 25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Kremlin will publicly signal willingness to enter formal ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine under US mediation within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran will announce a formal breach of IAEA safeguards or enrichment escalation beyond current thresholds within 30 days.

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Russia and Ukraine will agree to a temporary mutual halt on strikes against energy infrastructure within 30 days.

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North Korea will conduct a ballistic missile launch that overflies or lands near Japanese territory within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

China will impose new formal trade, customs, or export restrictions targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days.

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