The Kremlin will publicly signal willingness to enter formal ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine under US mediation within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-25.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium: Russia negotiates from strength / US pushes negotiated settlement (p=91%, stable, bullish market impact, confidence 78%, bargaining range 50%). Confidence damped from the raw Bayesian read given the reference-class hit rate for policy_action/geopolitical predictions (~20%).

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 25in 26d
Made: Sep 25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will impose new formal trade, customs, or export restrictions targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days.

geopolitical49%

Iran will announce a formal breach of IAEA safeguards or enrichment escalation beyond current thresholds within 30 days.

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Russia and Ukraine will agree to a temporary mutual halt on strikes against energy infrastructure within 30 days.

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North Korea will conduct a ballistic missile launch that overflies or lands near Japanese territory within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

The Kremlin will publicly signal willingness to enter formal ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine under US mediation within 30 days.

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