HITBrier 0.528

Reuters (wire tier, Jul 19, 2026): 'Taiwan says Chinese vessel activity jumps, raising fears for Pacific supply routes' - confirms increased PLA naval activity near Taiwan within the window. Additionally, Focus Taiwan/Taipei Times (Jul 21, 2026) reported a PLA helicopter crossed the Taiwan Strait median line for the first time, a novel gray-zone incursion. Daily Taiwan MND tracking reports throughout the window (Jul 14, 16, 20, 21, 23, 24, 26, 27) recorded PLA aircraft and ships operating around Taiwan (e.g. 21 aircraft/8 ships on Jul 23, 11 ships/3 aircraft on Jul 27). This exceeds the low bar of 'at least one' publicly reported incursion within 14 days.

Resolved Jul 28, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG correctADIZ

China's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported military incursion, large-scale naval exercise, or ADIZ violation near Taiwan within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-14 at 27% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-07-28. Brier score 0.528.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence, p=100% likelihood, fragile stability, narrow 25% Fearon bargaining range) plus actor intelligence confirming PLA's elevated operational tempo in South China Sea and around Taiwan.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Jul 2863d ago
Made: Jul 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

China's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported large-scale incursion (20 or more aircraft and/or vessels in a single day) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

geopolitical69%

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

China will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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China's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported military incursion, large-scale naval exercise, or ADIZ violation near Taiwan within 14 days.

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