MISSBrier 0.512

[basis: absence] Ran three differently-phrased searches ('Senkaku Islands Chinese coast guard incursion September 2026', 'China coast guard ships Japan territorial waters Diaoyu September 2026', 'Japan coast guard protest Chinese vessels Senkaku intrusion') restricted to the 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20 evidence window; all returned zero results within the window (excluded results were outside window). GDELT search_news tool was unavailable ('GDELT unavailable') for direct news confirmation. No official- or wire-tier source confirming a publicly reported incursion into Senkaku/Diaoyu waters was found within the window.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

China's coast guard or PLA will conduct a publicly reported incursion into Japanese-administered waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.512.

Derived from Japan Government Intelligence Update (rightward trajectory, territorial claims escalation) combined with China PLA sustained elevated operational tempo across South China Sea/Taiwan flashpoints, and the Taiwan Strait Bayesian fragile equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk).

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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China's coast guard or PLA will conduct a publicly reported incursion into Japanese-administered waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within 14 days.

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