Israel will close its airspace (partially or fully) by September 30, 2026, as defined by the Polymarket resolution criteria.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 63% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Crowd market [3701690] priced at 67% YES. Thesis notes 80% overall escalation risk score and confirmed Hormuz disruption pattern, but red-team critique flags calendar-convergence signals (Rosh Hashana/Yom Kippur anniversary window) as weak short-term timing tools, so I set probability moderately below the crowd.

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026, as defined by the Polymarket resolution criteria.

geopolitical16%

China's coast guard or PLA will conduct a publicly reported incursion into Japanese-administered waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within 14 days.

geopolitical72%MISS

The United States will announce a new export control, sanction, or tariff action targeting Chinese semiconductor or technology firms within 30 days.

geopolitical36%

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Iran experiences a leadership change by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical5%

Israel will close its airspace (partially or fully) by September 30, 2026, as defined by the Polymarket resolution criteria.

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