Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026, as defined by the Polymarket resolution criteria.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 16% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-31.

Crowd market [2243896] priced at only 12% YES, but Bayesian Russia-Ukraine Endgame analysis shows a sufficient 50% Fearon bargaining range, 2 stable equilibria, and 78% confidence bullish 'negotiate from strength / push negotiated settlement' outcome (91% equilibrium probability) — materially higher than crowd pricing.

Probability: 16%
Timeframe: 55 days
Deadline: Oct 31in 32d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's coast guard or PLA will conduct a publicly reported incursion into Japanese-administered waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within 14 days.

geopolitical72%MISS

Israel will close its airspace (partially or fully) by September 30, 2026, as defined by the Polymarket resolution criteria.

geopolitical63%

The United States will announce a new export control, sanction, or tariff action targeting Chinese semiconductor or technology firms within 30 days.

geopolitical36%

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Iran experiences a leadership change by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical5%

Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026, as defined by the Polymarket resolution criteria.

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