The United States will announce a new export control, sanction, or tariff action targeting Chinese semiconductor or technology firms within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 36% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-10-14.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (China gray zone escalation, US economic deterrence, p=100% most likely equilibrium) and the recently confirmed pattern of US FCC/Xinjiang export-control and sanctions actions targeting China, indicating continuation of this deterrence strategy.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 68d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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