Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 17% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-31.

Mirrors Polymarket market 2243896 (crowd YES 16%). Grounded in the Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium showing a sufficient 50% bargaining range, 2 stable equilibria, and 78% confidence bullish assessment (Russia negotiate from strength, US push negotiated settlement), which diverges materially from the crowd's low pricing.

Probability

17%

Timeframe

55 days

Deadline

Oct 31in 32d

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.