MISSBrier 0.390

[basis: absence] Two differently phrased searches for 'Israel closed airspace September 2026 September 6 30' and 'September 2026 Israel closes airspace ... airports shut NOTAM' found no dated confirmation of closure. Reuters wire report September 30 'Passengers foil bid to crash Dubai-Tel Aviv flight, Israel says, after co-pilot stabs pilot' describes an Israel-bound flight, without proving no earlier temporary closure. Actual confirmed closures: 0; required: at least 1; 0 < 1. This is an absence-based finding, not positive evidence disproving every possible temporary closure.

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

Israel closes its airspace by September 30, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 62% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.390.

Mirrors Polymarket market 3701690 (crowd YES 67%). Grounded in the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergent signal (2026-09-19, intensity 5/5) explicitly tied to the 1973 Yom Kippur War historical parallel, plus the 80% overall escalation risk score, arguing slightly above crowd probability.

Probability: 62%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 3016d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026.

geopolitical17%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical12%MISS

Iran experiences a leadership change by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical5%MISS

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Israel closes its airspace by September 30, 2026.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture