[basis: absence] Two differently phrased within-window web searches ('US announces end of Iranian blockade September 2026 September 30 Reuters' and 'White House Trump ended lifted naval blockade Iran September 2026 announcement September 30') found no official- or wire-tier past-tense announcement ending the blockade. Reuters (wire), September 25, headline 'US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, sources say' describes discussions, not an announcement that it ended. Actual qualifying completed announcements found: 0; required: at least 1 by September 30; 0 < 1, threshold NOT met. Absence-based finding, not definitive proof of nonoccurrence.
Resolved Oct 7, 2026
Geopolitical
LONG wrong
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 12% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.016.
Mirrors Polymarket market 3128887 (crowd YES 18%). Grounded in the Iran Nuclear Bayesian Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict conditions) and the 67% Hormuz escalation probability, arguing the crowd is overpricing a near-term diplomatic resolution.
Probability
12%
Timeframe
24 days
Deadline
Sep 3016d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.