Mirrors Polymarket market 3128887 (crowd YES 18%). Grounded in the Iran Nuclear Bayesian Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict conditions) and the 67% Hormuz escalation probability, arguing the crowd is overpricing a near-term diplomatic resolution.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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