Mirrors Polymarket market 2730675 (crowd YES 3%). Grounded in Iran IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation mode following naval leadership losses but no structural indicators of imminent regime change; confidence aligns closely with crowd pricing given lack of contradicting evidence.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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