Iran experiences a leadership change by September 30, 2026.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.
Mirrors Polymarket market 2730675 (crowd YES 3%). Grounded in Iran IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation mode following naval leadership losses but no structural indicators of imminent regime change; confidence aligns closely with crowd pricing given lack of contradicting evidence.
- Probability
- 5%
- Timeframe
- 24 days
- Deadline
- Sep 30in 1d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.