PARTIALBrier 0.008

Copper (HG) and Aluminum (AL) price data available for March 23-30, 2026. Computing copper/aluminum ratio using March 23 prices (creation date): HG=29.02, AL=64.70, ratio=29.02/64.70=0.448. March 30 prices: HG=28.61, AL=64.80, ratio=28.61/64.80=0.441. Actual ratios around 0.44-0.45, far above target of below 12.0. Required: <12.0, Actual: ~0.44, 0.44 < 12.0 is true, but this appears to be a data/units mismatch. Industrial metals ratios are typically expressed as copper price per pound / aluminum price per pound, not as futures contract prices.

Resolved Mar 30, 2026

Market

SHORT correctHG/AL_ratio

Industrial metals complex (copper/aluminum ratio) will decline below 12.0 within 7 days as China's gray zone Taiwan escalation (53% probability) shifts manufacturing expectations while energy-intensive aluminum production faces disruption risks

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 9% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-30. Brier score 0.008.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Bayesian analysis showing 53% escalation probability with fragile equilibrium. China dominant actor type is calculating (30%) but escalation risk remains elevated. Reference class: day_count/market shows 71% hit rate but reduced due to regime contradiction concerns.

Probability: 9%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 30183d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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