MISSBrier 0.518

Unable to obtain direct SENSEX price data from market data providers. Web search results show Reuters articles from March 13 and March 23, 2026 reporting 'India's equity benchmarks confirm correction on Iran war' and 'Indian shares fall, rupee drops to record low as Iran war rattles markets.' These articles indicate market declines rather than new highs during the prediction window. Counted trading days with new 30-day highs: 0 days based on available evidence. Actual: 0 days at new 30-day highs, Required: at least 2 days at new 30-day highs, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met. Indian equities declined contrary to prediction.

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Market

India's SENSEX index will close at a new 30-day high on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection away from China (driven by Taiwan gray-zone escalation) and relative geopolitical insulation channel capital flows toward Indian equities

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Taiwan gray-zone Nash equilibrium penalizing China-exposed assets, demographic tailwind (knowledge bank: India's working-age population expanding through 2050s), and regime transition creating capital reallocation from risk-on China exposure to relatively insulated Indian markets

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The LNG spot price (JKM Asia benchmark) will trade above $16/MMBtu on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Hormuz closure forces energy rerouting and Asian buyers scramble for alternative supply, compounding seasonal demand patterns

market75%MISS

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) will decline more than 10% from its March 7 level within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation and Hormuz closure risk create shipping route uncertainty, increasing insurance premiums and suppressing dry bulk charter demand

market75%MISS

The KRW (South Korean Won) will weaken past 1,380 per USD on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as Taiwan gray-zone escalation spillover and DPRK Day of the Sun tensions (April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction, intensity 4/5) create compounding risk premium for Korean peninsula-exposed currencies

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India's SENSEX index will close at a new 30-day high on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection away from China (driven by Taiwan gray-zone escalation) and relative geopolitical insulation channel capital flows toward Indian equities

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