The LNG spot price (JKM Asia benchmark) will trade above $16/MMBtu on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Hormuz closure forces energy rerouting and Asian buyers scramble for alternative supply, compounding seasonal demand patterns

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 75% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.563.

Derived from: Knowledge bank confirming Hormuz closed since March 2 (Operation Epic Fury), Strait of Hormuz profile (21M bbl/day transit including LNG), OPEC+ mixed Nash equilibrium disrupted by supply uncertainty, and energy chokepoint closure creating direct LNG supply disruption for Asian importers

Probability: 75%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

India's SENSEX index will close at a new 30-day high on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection away from China (driven by Taiwan gray-zone escalation) and relative geopolitical insulation channel capital flows toward Indian equities

market72%MISS

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) will decline more than 10% from its March 7 level within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation and Hormuz closure risk create shipping route uncertainty, increasing insurance premiums and suppressing dry bulk charter demand

market75%MISS

The KRW (South Korean Won) will weaken past 1,380 per USD on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as Taiwan gray-zone escalation spillover and DPRK Day of the Sun tensions (April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction, intensity 4/5) create compounding risk premium for Korean peninsula-exposed currencies

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The LNG spot price (JKM Asia benchmark) will trade above $16/MMBtu on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Hormuz closure forces energy rerouting and Asian buyers scramble for alternative supply, compounding seasonal demand patterns

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