HITBrier 0.063

USDKRW current price on April 7, 2026: 1,503.24873. Historical data shows USDKRW traded consistently above 1,380 throughout the entire prediction window from March 8 to April 7, 2026. All daily closes ranged from 1,475.32557 (March 10) to 1,517.36027 (March 30), well above the 1,380 threshold. Counted trading days above 1,380: All 30 trading days in the window (far exceeding the required 3). Actual: 30+ days above 1,380, Required: at least 3 days above 1,380, 30 > 3 therefore threshold MET. The Korean won weakened as predicted.

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Market

The KRW (South Korean Won) will weaken past 1,380 per USD on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as Taiwan gray-zone escalation spillover and DPRK Day of the Sun tensions (April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction, intensity 4/5) create compounding risk premium for Korean peninsula-exposed currencies

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 75% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.063.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Nash equilibrium (gray-zone escalation, 70% confidence), Mars-Saturn conjunction + DPRK Day of the Sun signal (intensity 4/5, April 14), and 80% geopolitical escalation risk creating cascading Asia-Pacific currency pressure on Korea as frontline state

Probability: 75%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The KRW (South Korean Won) will weaken past 1,380 per USD on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as Taiwan gray-zone escalation spillover and DPRK Day of the Sun tensions (April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction, intensity 4/5) create compounding risk premium for Korean peninsula-exposed currencies

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