XLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.200.
Derived from: 80% overall escalation risk score and dense calendar of stress events (Taiwan Strait window, DPRK provocation cycle, October 7 anniversary) signaled as defense-sector relevant.
- Probability
- 45%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 209d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.