MISSBrier 0.200

Data-resolved: XLI moved from 175.27 to 169.75 (-3.15%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 179. Target not reached. High was 175.71.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLI

XLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.200.

Derived from: 80% overall escalation risk score and dense calendar of stress events (Taiwan Strait window, DPRK provocation cycle, October 7 anniversary) signaled as defense-sector relevant.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$179

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Industrial sector ETF XLI will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $168.26, 4% from $175.27 at creation)

market27%MISS

XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will close below $165.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation weigh on cyclical trade-exposed industrials.

market84%

XLI (Industrial Select SPDR) will outperform XLF (Financial Select SPDR) by more than 2 percentage points over a 7-day rolling period within 30 days as defense industrial complex benefits from elevated geopolitical tensions

market72%

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XLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.

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