HITBrier 0.078

Early-confirmed: XLI hit target above 2 on 2026-03-09, 2026-03-10. Current price: 170.02 (started at 170.94).

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

LONG correctXLI

XLI (Industrial Select SPDR) will outperform XLF (Financial Select SPDR) by more than 2 percentage points over a 7-day rolling period within 30 days as defense industrial complex benefits from elevated geopolitical tensions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.078.

Derived from: 80% geopolitical escalation risk score, ten concurrent game theory scenarios (six mixed/contested outcomes), and NATO Article 5 readiness creating defensive sector rotation opportunity

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$2

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.

market45%MISS

Industrial sector ETF XLI will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $168.26, 4% from $175.27 at creation)

market27%MISS

XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will close below $165.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation weigh on cyclical trade-exposed industrials.

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XLI (Industrial Select SPDR) will outperform XLF (Financial Select SPDR) by more than 2 percentage points over a 7-day rolling period within 30 days as defense industrial complex benefits from elevated geopolitical tensions

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