MISSBrier 0.072

Data-resolved: XLI moved from 175.27 to 169.75 (-3.15%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 168.26. Target not reached. Low was 167.49.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctXLI

Industrial sector ETF XLI will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $168.26, 4% from $175.27 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 27% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.072.

Confirmed Hormuz shipping disruptions and elevated freight costs, plus wartime risk-off equity regime with SPY/QQQ near capitulation RSI, imply continued pressure on industrials exposed to global supply chains.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$168.26

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.

market45%MISS

XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will close below $165.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation weigh on cyclical trade-exposed industrials.

market84%

XLI (Industrial Select SPDR) will outperform XLF (Financial Select SPDR) by more than 2 percentage points over a 7-day rolling period within 30 days as defense industrial complex benefits from elevated geopolitical tensions

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Industrial sector ETF XLI will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $168.26, 4% from $175.27 at creation)

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