XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will close below $165.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation weigh on cyclical trade-exposed industrials.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 84% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.

Derived from: risk_off market regime confirmation (Fear & Greed 38), Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (fragile stability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) impacting trade-linked sectors.

Probability: 84%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 5in 6d
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$165

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Industrial sector ETF XLI will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $168.26, 4% from $175.27 at creation)

market27%MISS

XLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.

market45%MISS

XLI (Industrial Select SPDR) will outperform XLF (Financial Select SPDR) by more than 2 percentage points over a 7-day rolling period within 30 days as defense industrial complex benefits from elevated geopolitical tensions

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XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will close below $165.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation weigh on cyclical trade-exposed industrials.

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