China will conduct a large-scale PLA aircraft or naval incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ (exceeding recent monthly baseline activity) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis identifies 'Gray zone escalation' by China as the dominant equilibrium (p=100%) with 53% escalation probability and critical fracture risk in the China-US coalition.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a ballistic missile launch that overflies or lands near Japanese territory within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran will announce a formal breach of IAEA safeguards or enrichment escalation beyond current thresholds within 30 days.

geopolitical32%

China will impose new formal trade, customs, or export restrictions targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days.

geopolitical49%

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China will conduct a large-scale PLA aircraft or naval incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ (exceeding recent monthly baseline activity) within 14 days.

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