[basis: absence] GDELT search for 'PLA China Taiwan encirclement large scale military drills exercise September 12 October 3 2026' returned an unavailable error. Two differently phrased web searches, one for 'September 12 October 3 2026 PLA Taiwan encircling large scale military exercises blockade drills announced' and a second for 'Taiwan defense ministry China joint sword war games surround island late September 2026 September October Reuters AP', returned zero results dated inside September 12–October 3. No in-window official- or wire-tier past-tense confirmation found. Actual confirmed qualifying events: 0; required: at least 1; 0 < 1, threshold not met. This is denial by absence, not affirmative proof no operation occurred.
Resolved Oct 8, 2026
Geopolitical
China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or show-of-force operation encircling Taiwan within 21 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 70% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-08. Brier score 0.490.
Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis analysis (narrow 25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, china dominant type 'calculating' pursuing gray zone escalation, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical).
Probability
70%
Timeframe
21 days
Deadline
Oct 313d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
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The US Treasury will announce a front-loaded short-term bill issuance strategy (increasing T-bill share of total issuance) at its next quarterly refunding announcement within 30 days.