China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or show-of-force operation encircling Taiwan within 21 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 70% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-03.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis analysis (narrow 25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, china dominant type 'calculating' pursuing gray zone escalation, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical).

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 21 days
Deadline: Oct 3in 4d
Made: Sep 12

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China's central bank (PBOC) will announce a new targeted stimulus measure for the property sector within 30 days.

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The United States will announce new export control restrictions targeting semiconductor equipment or advanced chip sales to China within 30 days.

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China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or show-of-force operation encircling Taiwan within 21 days.

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